Straight Drive: Batting First and winning games in Australia
A look at, the optimum strike rate for a match-winning innings while batting first in Australia.
In T20s especially in the last few years, teams prefer to chase the target. The thought process behind this is that batsmen know what needs to be achieved and can construct the innings according to the target by mitigating risk.
But when it comes to setting up the target, teams tend to struggle.
What is a good score to defend?
What is the par score?
Have we got enough runs on the board?
These questions come to mind. That is where we can find the Average winning score as a gauge to measure the par score. But when it comes to innings played by a batter, say, for instance, if a batter comes up with a score i.e., 35 runs of 27 balls (130 Sr) while batting first, we don’t have anything to gauge whether it’s a match-winning innings or potential match losing innings unless match comes to an end.
But we can gauge an innings while chasing because we know the target. If the strike rate is lower than the Required run rate it’s a potential match-losing innings, if it’s higher than the Required run rate it’s a match-winning innings. Let’s take the same innings by a batter mentioned earlier 35(27) at 130Sr in a 150-run chase. It’s a match-winning innings because it’s above RRR. If it’s lower than 125sr we can conclude that as potential match-losing innings.
So here in this article, I tried to come up with a gauge to measure the Optimum Strike rate to maintain throughout a T20 innings in Australia. And conclude an innings as a match-winning innings or potential match-losing innings after the end of 1st innings, not at end of the match.
Before that we need to know how batting first panned out, In Australia since 2021 team batting first won 63%, and the chasing team won only 37% of the games. So, it’s not like Asia where chasing is the better way or sometimes the only way to win games.
For this, I have taken T20s that happened in Australia since 2021, and among the top 7 (Openers to No.7) batters combined in a winning team batting first, Players scored at a strike rate of 145. I am terming 145 Sr as the Optimum Strike rate “Opt_Sr”. So, the Optimum Runs per ball “Opt_RpB” in Australia is 1.45.
When batters score more than 1.45rpb while batting first their team ended on the winning side 8 out of 10 times. This is calculated across 82 innings of batters who batted at least 15 balls in an innings since 2021 in Australia.
In the table below you can find the Opt_RpB for each venue where Super 12 stage matches will take place.
The chart below shows an example of 15+ balls faced Optimum runs scoring – of course, this can be continued for longer innings as well:
So, it’s as cliché as it may sound: the more balls a batsman faces he must score quicker to positively impact the outcome of the game and vice versa. Hope this article helps you find a gauge to criticize or praise batsmen based on their strike rate while batting first in this T20WC.
Yes ofcourse we have seen how namibia defended against Sri Lanka
Good one and clarity. This article could be extension of CRICINFO Ground by Ground Analysis, where they metioned whole match RR. 👌