SNEAK IN EARLY: A Statistical Preview of the Sydney Cricket Ground.

Can India retain the border Gavaskar trophy by winning in Sydney and deny Australia the right to secure the trophy for a few more years?

At last, a game lived up to BGT’s hype

In terms of not giving an inch to each other, the Boxing Day test match is the game of the series so far. When we take other matches, it was more of a one-sided game where one team dominated and the other team was behind the 8-ball throughout the match—adding to the fact that it was a record crowd for a test match in Australia.

If you see this game in isolation, India lost the match because of two crucial drop catches by Jaiswal. Don’t get agitated elephant in the room is being addressed in the later part (RO-KO dismal returns).

Australia is a notch above India since the Perth test though India went downhill since then. Let’s see how they turn up in Sydney.

SCG & its nature

SCG is historically a ground where rain plays spoilsport most of the time. Leaving the rain aside, the pitch is a batter’s friend and spinners play a major role.

Since 2020, pitches have not produced results. More than 50 % of games are resulted in a draw. This ground is one of the poor grounds in terms of producing results. Hence, taking 20 wickets will be a huge challenge for the teams.

Let’s look at the average score and Day-wise Behaviour:

The pitch will get comparatively tough to bat after 1st innings. So, teams that won the toss chose to bat all the time (Since 2020).

Here, Days 1 & 2 are the best to bat and the pitch reacts only after Day 3. Even an average wicket tally gets into double digits during day 3.

Pacers vs Spinners

In SCG, Spinners get assistance early into the game compared to other Australian venues and they bowl more overs here. Spinners will get assistance that doesn’t mean they will dominate the games.

In reality, spinners have the worst average here in SCG among the other Australian venues. Even the Pacers are comparatively get less bounce for an Australian pitch and their average touches 33 in the last 5 games which is worst among other venues. This indicates that the pitch lacks pace and the turn will also be slow.

Overall Comparison of Pacers and Spinners taking Runs per Wicket(Bowling Average) and Balls per Wicket(Bowling Strike Rate) as metrics for better understanding

Overall, it will be tough for both pacers and spinners.

In terms of innings, 1st innings is the toughest for spinners. The pitch gets quicker as the game progresses where pacers play a crucial role and after day 3 spinners will get a quick turn off the pitch.

In terms of optimum length, bowlers will try to bowl at the fuller side of a good length. 77% of wickets have been taken from that particular length. This length is natural for Indian bowlers compared to Australian bowlers.

Form Guide

India Form Guide: LWLDL (last five Tests, most recent starting from Right)

India in SCG(Last 5 matches): Lost- 2 Draw- 3

Australia Form Guide: WLWDW

Australia in SCG(Last 5 matches): Won- 2 Draw- 3

In the Spotlight: Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli

Though Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli both are playing badly. We need to see them in isolation because Virat scored a 100 in Perth and his way of getting dismissed in the same way. Basically, Virat looking in control until he throws his bat when the ball is outside the off stump. He judges the length perfectly and his movements are spot on. For him, It is all about a mental battle to avoid getting out to a sucker ball.

Sucker Ball - Simply put it is a ball that plays with the patience of the batter. After keeping the batters in bay for a long period by bowling a good length, suddenly bowler pushes it a little fuller and tempts the batter to go for a drive on the off-side. That is where Batter loses his battle thinking that it’s an overpitched delivery and edges it behind.

That is what happens with Virat throughout his career even in his last innings. By bowling 6 overs of good length deliveries (denied him runs), Australian bowlers bowled a fuller length delivery to him and he lost his battle by going after the sucker ball.

When it comes to Rohit it is not the same. He gets out in all different ways. Inswinger, outswinger, sucker deliveries, and short deliveries too. You name it he gets out to them too. He misjudges the length of the ball and reacts late to the ball. These are signs of a batter who is not good enough at this level.

Hard calls might be taken in Rohit’s case shortly if he fails here but Virat looks good if he controls his ego, he might score a hundred in the next innings and prolong his career for 2 more years in test cricket.

Conservative Selections costing India?

When it comes to selecting bowling combinations Team India is very conservative, they have been playing a batting-heavy team. They bat till No.8 but that No.8 is more of a batter who bowls a bit. Usually, they play a No.8 who is predominantly a bowler and bats a bit. By selecting a batting-heavy team, they are facing a couple of repercussions, firstly they are losing more games while playing this combination.

Since 2018 (SENA), Team India has won 43% of the games when they play a combination of No.8 who is predominantly a bowler and bats a bit. If they play a batters or a batter who bowls a bit at No.8 their win percentage reduces to 28%.

That is where players like Harshit Rana will come into the picture who has a batting average of 34 in 17 innings with the bat in FC and two fifty, one hundred to go with it.

Bumrah's Workload

The second repercussion is that their premier bowler bowls more spells without much break and the possibility of him breaking down is high. In this case, Bumrah bowled his most number of balls in an innings ever. 320 balls in the MCG game and tops the list of the most number of overs bowled in this series.

India’s 5th bowlers bowled 328 balls throughout this series and it is just 8 balls more than Bumrah’s in the last game. By picking two spinners, they made it more complicated.

Team news

Expected XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Rohit Sharma(C), Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant(WK), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Washington Sundar, Akash Deep, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj.

Expected XI: Usman Khawaja, Sam Konstas, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey(WK), Pat Cummins(C), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scot Boland.

What does my predictive algorithm say?

It will be a drawn game. If at all a result then the team batting first with a bowling-heavy combination will win by 213 runs.

The below chart shows you the exact number of runs a team needs to score to win the game and stay competitive in terms of optimum scoring rate.

That means if a team scores anything more than 399 and between 463 in 1st innings of the match they are supposed to win the match. Likewise, it goes with other innings.

The above optimum scoring rate chart indicates the rate at which a team has to score so that they are on track to win the match even if they are losing wickets. The bowling side should keep the opposition under this RPO to stay in the game when they don’t pick up wickets. For instance, the team bats in the 1st innings expected to score at 3.3RPO to 3.4RPO and it goes as per chart for other innings.

Verdict: Match Drawn

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