SNEAK IN EARLY: A Statistical Preview of THE GABBA, Brisbane.

Gabbatoir is being breached more often nowadays. Can Australia give a decisive punch with the Series Tied at 1-1 and regain their "GABBA" pride?

Dec 11, 2024

A Powerful Reply and a Reality Check

After a heavy defeat in the first match of the series, the Aussies were on top of their game and thrashed team India virtually with an innings to spare. Even though Team India played with an upgraded XI in Adelaide, this loss was a reality check and reminded the world how tough it is to win back-to-back games in Australia.

Aussies are at their best when they gain confidence because they are a serial winning team and they might get on a roll. Team India should be happy that this defeat came with a pink ball as they play test matches with it sporadically.

GABBA and its nature

GABBA is the quickest pitch in Australia. Especially after Australia’s defeat against India in 2021, they turned it into a deadly pitch where pacers are enjoying the most even with a white ball.

Let’s look at the average score and Day-wise Behaviour:

Here, the pitch gets comparatively easier to bat as the game processes, especially during 2nd innings. Batting first is the hardest in recent times. The average score in 1st innings is 242 compared to 377 in second innings.

As far as scoring is concerned, Day 2 will be the best whereas Day 1 will be a nightmare. That is where the team batting second takes the game away from the opponent. The scary thing is that the game doesn’t go into the fifth day often.

The team batting second has an overwhelming advantage over the batting first team in terms of winning the match in recent times.

Pacers vs Spinners

In GABBA, there won’t be much turn. Hence, spinners are not very effective unless the pitch breaks on days 3 & 4. Spinners come into the picture mostly after the 2nd Innings and this is a ground where Warne enjoyed bowling on hence wrist spinner like Kuldeep will be missed by team India. Being a finger spinner in Gabba is tough.

Overall Comparison of Pacers and Spinners taking Runs per Wicket(Bowling Average) and Balls per Wicket(Bowling Strike Rate) as metrics for better understanding

Compared to Adelaide and Perth, GABBA has been a difficult pitch for spinners to make an impact with an average of 43.1 and a strike rate of 78.1. There is a difference of (-17.3) and (-28.1) in both the metrics against the pacers bowling average and bowling strike rate respectively which is very high.

In terms of innings, it is all about seamers. By the look of it, teams might think playing all seam attack here in GABBA

In terms of optimum length, bowlers will try to hit the shorter side of good length and double bluff with fuller deliveries as a surprise. Especially, tailenders should be ready for some chin music.

Form Guide

India Form Guide: LLLWL (last five Tests, most recent starting from Right)

India in GABBA: Played- 7 Won- 1 Lost- 5 Draw- 1

Australia Form Guide: LWWLW

Australia in GABBA(Last 5 matches): Won- 4 Lost- 1

In the Spotlight: Team India and Their First Innings Concern

Team India is failing heavily in the first innings of a test match. So, they are always playing a catch-up game whenever they bat first. I have looked into their innings-wise performance during this World Test Championship Cycle.

To analyze this, I took three metrics average scores, Bowled out under 200, and Runs per wicket for all the innings individually, and compared them. In all these aspects, 1st innings is where Team India performed poorly compared to 2nd and 3rd Innings. They performed brilliantly during 2nd and 3rd innings of a game. (Refer to the below table for exact numbers)

When we look into the batting average of every Indian batter/allrounder named in the squad, apart from Jadeja nobody has an average of more than 50 in the 1st innings of a game. Jaiswal is the only player who averages more than 40.

In 2nd innings, five players are averaging more than 40, and in 3rd innings of the game, six players are averaging more than 40. In 4th innings, they are poor too but it is understandable.

The concern is with 1st innings where Indian batters are struggling to set up a game. They are trying to bat out of their skins during the 3rd innings of a game or waiting for bumrah magic to happen every time in this WTC cycle.

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Even their win percentage goes down when they bat first 50% success rate compared to a 63% success rate when they bat second in a game.

Battle to watch out for: Head vs Bumrah

This series almost feels like bumrah versus Australian Batters and Head versus Indian bowlers. Head and Bumrah are so much vital for the results of their respective teams. Hence, whoever wins the battle they set up their team in a pole position.

Bumrah has got head 3 times yet head was averaging 30.7. Each other doesn’t have the upper hand over the other. It will be a tight contest and a match-defining one.

Team News and Preparation: Josh Hazlewood might be back from injury.

A virtually two-day finish at Adelaide allowed both teams to have a breather before a quick turnaround. Especially Indian batters put in a practice session under the sun with a familiar red ball at Adelaide Oval.

Teams might think of playing an all-out seam attack considering the history and conditions but they might stick to one spinner strategy.

Washington Sundar/Ravindra Jadeja will replace Ashwin. As the effect of pure spinner is less here in GABBA, playing an allrounder might be a wise idea. After his performance in Adelaide, Harshit Rana will feel the pressure from Akash Deep and might replace him in this game.

Expected XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant(WK), Rohit Sharma(C), Washington Sundar/Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Harshit Rana/Akash Deep, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj.

If Josh Hazlewood will come back straight into the team and replace Scot Boland.

Expected XI: Usman Khawaja, Nathan McSweeney, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey(WK), Pat Cummins(C), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood.

What does my predictive algorithm say?

Win the toss & bowl first and the team bowling first will win the match by 331 runs or by an innings.

The below chart shows you the exact number of runs a team needs to score to win the game and stay competitive in terms of optimum scoring rate.

That means if a team scores anything more than 361 and between 377 in 2nd innings of the match they are supposed to win the match. Likewise, it goes with other innings.

Aksay’s Cricket views

SNEAK IN EARLY: A Statistical Preview of THE GABBA, Brisbane.

Gabbatoir is being breached more often nowadays. Can Australia give a decisive punch with the Series Tied at 1-1 and regain their "GABBA" pride?

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