SNEAK IN EARLY: A Statistical Preview of the "BOXING DAY" test, Melbourne.
After a rain-marred drawn game in GABBA, Can Australia hold the fort against Team India in MCG?
An Escape from the jaws of defeat (Thanks to the Rain God!)
Apart from the Perth game, the Aussies are back to their near best, especially their bowlers. They have exposed the vulnerability in the Indian batting line-up, which seemed settled after a historic 200+ stand by their openers in Perth.
Though the Adelaide test can be considered an outlier due to the color of the ball, the GABBA test batting performance should be a worrying sign for Team India. If not for Akash Deep and Jasprit Bumrah (all the way!) batting brilliance, they would be looking at a 2-1 scoreline coming into this match. Luckily, the scoreline is 1-1 and they can step into MCG with some confidence.
Festive season and a Sell out Crowd
It’s that time of the year, Christmas and a Boxing Day test match what more can you ask? There is a huge buzz around this test match with series on the line. It is a sell-out crowd of almost 95000.
It’s gonna be CRAZY!!!!
MCG and its nature
Melbourne Cricket Ground is historically a batting paradise. After a couple of losses against India, the Australian Cricket Board appointed a curator who worked in Perth/gabba in 2018. Hence, in recent times we have witnessed more help for fast bowlers and MCG turned into a fast bowler’s friend.
To understand the shift in behavior, since 2019 the bowling average is 25.2 for fast bowlers and has seen a drop of 16 runs. Between 2013 and 2019 bowling average was 41.2.
When compared with other venues MCG is the toughest for batsmen to deal with pace bowlers.
Let’s look at the average score and Day-wise Behaviour:
After the recent changes, Innings 1st and 3rd seem comparatively difficult to bat. Even this match is going to be played on a pitch with a bit more grass than the usual MCG pitch. Fast bowlers are expected to have a field day when they bowl first.
As far as scoring is concerned, Day 2 will be the best whereas Day 1 will be a nightmare. That is where the team batting second takes the game away from the opponent. The scary thing is that the game doesn’t go into the fifth day often.
Interestingly, since 2019, it's the ground where the toss appears to have mattered least with 60% of games won by the team bowling first and a 40% of games won by team batting first.
Pacers vs Spinners:
In MCG, there will always be a bit of a turn for spinners. Especially, when the ball seams as it does in recent times along with some hot weather. In venue comparison, found that MCG is the second best for spinners. Team India fielded two spinners when they played in MCG last time.
Overall Comparison of Pacers and Spinners taking Runs per Wicket(Bowling Average) and Balls per Wicket(Bowling Strike Rate) as metrics for better understanding
Spinners could come into the picture after day 1. Historically, MCG has something for spinners even during the early part of the game. The difference in the Bowling average and Bowling Strike rate is just (-7.4) and (-12.4) respectively compared to the Pacers which is very low.
In terms of innings, 2nd innings is the toughest for spinners. The pitch gets quicker as the game progresses where pacers play a crucial role.
In terms of optimum length, bowlers will try to bowl at the fuller side of a good length. 77% of wickets have been taken from that particular length. This length is natural for Indian bowlers, especially Siraj.
Form Guide
India Form Guide: LLWLD (last five Tests, most recent starting from Right)
India in MCG(Last 5 matches): Won- 2 Lost- 2 Draw- 1
Australia Form Guide: WWLWD
Australia in MCG(Last 5 matches): Won- 4 Lost- 1
In the Spotlight: Rohit Sharma and Sam Konstas
In the ongoing season 2024/25, Rohit Sharma is averaging 11.69 in 13 innings. It is becoming tough for him to settle at No.6 suddenly. At the fag end of his career, he is under enormous pressure to perform well in the upcoming couple of games to retain his captainship hat.
Sam Konstas, is a 19-year-old promising youngster from New South Wales who bats with a lot of freedom. If he finds a place in the playing XI, he will be the youngest to play for Australia since Pat Cummins in 2011. He enjoys playing reverse lap of fast bowlers. During this week’s practice, he played a reverse lap and shouted well-bowled bumrah though it’s off-chucking from Marnus Labuschagne. It shows his approach toward facing the world’s best bowler if he makes a debut.
Check the video: Sam Konstas Reverse Lapping in nets
Australian Bowler's workload and its impact
Australian Bowlers are usually so good at the start of the series and their performance takes a toll at the fag end of the series due to their workload.
They have a difference of (-9.5) and (-8.2) in terms of bowling average and bowling strike rate respectively. In simple terms, they are conceding 95 runs more in an innings, in the last 2 games of the series compared to the first 3 games of the series.
In the first 3 games of the series, on average they bowl out an opposition at a score of 246 in 94.3 overs. During the last 2 games of the series, on average they bowl out an opposition at a score of 341 in 109.5 overs.
During this series, I am tracking the spells of all the bowlers to keep a check on their workload. Starc and Cummins top the highest number of spells and overs bowled by a bowler in this series. Find out below:
Travis Head vs Jasprit Bumrah
The Battle decides in which way the series goes. For now, Head is winning the battle outright. In this series, Travis head is scoring at a 90+ strike rate with a 40+ average against Bumrah. Bumrah dismissed him only twice that too after he scored 89 and 152.
In general, Travis head is so good against Jasprit Bumrah and he is one of the few batters who dominates the world’s best bowler.
Break the Myth: T Head is suspectable When the ball is hard and seaming. India should get him to face the new ball. So, that they can get him out cheaply
To find this out, I have taken his entry point as a metric and tried to decipher the opinion. Actually, he is averaging and striking better when he walks out to bat before the 25th over compared to after the 25th over.
To take it further added 10th over as the entry point. Here is what we got, Head Plays Fire with Fire. He averages 50.2 and strikes at 83.4 when he walks out to bat before the 10th over.
Better they hope Head mistimed one pull shot and work toward restricting the boundary option on the offside.
Team News: Tanush Kotian was brought into the side after mid-series retirement from legendary off-spinner. Sam Konstas replaces Nathan Mcsweeney along with Jhye Richardson replaces injured Josh Hazelwood.
Despite getting hit on the hand by Akash Deep during the practice session, Rohit Sharma should be fine to play the game with no major concerns. Expecting the same XI for team India. Personally, I would like to see Harshit Rana play in place of Nitish and strengthen the bowling attack.
Expected XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant(WK), Rohit Sharma(C), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Akash Deep, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj.
19-year-old Prodigy Sam Konstas will debut in this game and replace Nathan Mcsweeney from the last game. Scot Boland should be back replacing injured Josh Hazelwood.
Expected XI: Usman Khawaja, Sam Konstas, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey(WK), Pat Cummins(C), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scot Boland.
What does my predictive algorithm say?
Win the toss & bowl first and the team bowling first will win the match by 161 runs.
The below chart shows you the exact number of runs a team needs to score to win the game and stay competitive in terms of optimum scoring rate.
That means if a team scores anything more than 316 and between 333 in 2nd innings of the match they are supposed to win the match. Likewise, it goes with other innings.
The above optimum scoring rate chart indicates the rate at which a team has to score so that they are on track to win the match even if they are losing wickets. The bowling side should keep the opposition under this RPO to stay in the game when they don’t pick up wickets. For instance, the team bats in the 1st innings expected to score at 2.8RPO to 2.9RPO and it goes as per chart for other innings.
Verdict: Australia will win the match and M Siraj gets a 5-fer.
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