SNEAK IN EARLY: A Statistical Preview of Optus Stadium, Perth.

Curtain Raiser for a Cricket's Premier Rivalry "THE BORDER-GAVASKAR TROPHY". Can India breach the modern WACA of Australia?

Bigger Picture: It is time for the next Gen Indian Players to take over the legacy

After a pride-crushing 3-0 loss against New Zealand in home conditions. Team India is searching for a magic key called “Confidence” that will unlock many doors. Especially with the bat, they struggle to score some big runs irrespective of the conditions. All eyes are on Jaiswal, Gill, and Pant to score big runs and take the legacy forward.

Aussie Pride on Stake:

In test format, it has been a decade since Australia won a test series against India and was beaten by India twice in home conditions. 8 out of 13 players from this current Australian squad have not beaten India in a test series ever. It is the start of a cricket summer in Australia. They cannot slip one more time in home conditions against India.

In terms of preparations, Few Played test series against India A, and others got game time through Sheffield Shield 2024/25.

Long Story Short: Team India’s Preparation and a New Virus in Indian Cricket Called “BOLT150”

BCCI sent India A for a couple of unofficial 4-day matches with Australia A to give game time for a few players who come out of injury and a few for backup batting/bowling spots. This squad has some players who were named in the main squad.

Even though they lost both matches, they had some positives

Takeaways for the Indian Team from the AUS A Series: -

1. Sai Sudarshan & Padikkal's Batting Display on bouncy pitches

2. Jurel's Solidity & Composure in Tricky Conditions

3. Mukesh & Prasidh's Consistency in line & length with Kookaburra ball

4. Nitish Reddy Economical Spells with ball

Once the main squad landed, they opted for a match simulation in good old “WACA” instead of a practice match.

There is a new virus spreading in INDIAN CRICKET, which is called "BOLT150" Bundling out less than 150.

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Whether it is India or India A, they are getting all-out in and around to a score of less than 150 frequently. If they have to stay competitive in this series, somehow they should find a remedy for “BOLT150”.

Perth and its nature:

Generally, Perth’s pitch is not as quick and bouncy as WACA’s. Because of drop-in pitches, it is good for batting if they handle bounce well. Especially, the team batting first gets rewarded heavily when they start well in the first session.

Let’s look at the average score and Day-wise Behaviour:

As far as day-wise behavior is concerned, day 1 is easier to bat. The pitch starts to get tougher after day 3 and the wickets tumbles frequently.

Pacers vs Spinners:

73% of wickets taken by pacers and 27% of wickets taken by spinners

Especially spinners are more effective during the 2nd & 4th innings compared to 1st and 3rd innings. Both the Number of Runs conceded before taking a wicket(Bowling average) and the Number of Balls Bowled before taking a wicket (Bowling strike rate) are poor in 1st and 3rd Innings.

Even the pacers are struggling in 1st innings, they are getting hold of the game only from 2nd innings then they are starting to dominate the game.

Overall spinners need not be defensive bowlers here, they can use bounce to their advantage. To the surprise of many the highest wicket-taker in Perth is not Starc, Cummins, or Hazlewood it is Nathon Lyon with 27 wickets at an average of 18 to go with two 5-fer and one 4-fer.

The intriguing factor in Perth is that Nathan Lyon only bowled during the 2nd & 4th of these matches and never got a chance to bowl in 1st and 3rd innings. To go with it the poor performance of spinners during 1st and 3rd innings has to do with the quality of visiting spinners played in the XI. When India played a solitary match here, they went with four pacers and Vihari as a part-time option.

In terms of Wicket-taking length for pacers, it’s towards the shorter side. Due to the bounce, the mode of dismissals will be caught behind either in slips or into the glove.

For spinners, it is towards the fuller side and overspin imparts bounce from the good length that is where spinners should try to land the ball.

Now it’s time for some predictive algorithmic numbers. The below chart shows you exact runs a team needs to score to win the game and stay competitive in terms of optimum scoring rate.

That means if a team scores anything more than 457 and between 553 in 1st innings of the match they are supposed to win the match. Likewise, it goes with other innings.

The above optimum scoring rate chart indicates the rate at which a team has to score so that they are on track to win the match if they are not losing wickets. For instance, the team bats in the 1st innings expected to score at 3.5RPO to 4.6RPO and it goes as per chart for other innings.

Every time a team won the toss they elected to bat first and they went on to win the match.

Form Guide:

India Form Guide: WWLLL (last five Tests, most recent starting from Right)

India in Optus, Perth: Played- 1 Won- 0 Lost- 1

Australia Form Guide: WWLWW

Australia in Optus, Perth: Played- 4 Won- 4 Lost- 0

In the Spotlight: Y Jaiswal and Virat Kohli

The Young man with high potential and in his early test career proved his worth by being the second-most run scorer in the test for 2024. Now, his real test starts here in Australia. After finding the bounce in South Africa very hard, he has landed in Perth and is up against Starc, Cummins, and Hazlewood. Expectations are high, let’s wait and watch how he handles pace and bounce.

Virat Kohli has been averaging 30 ish since 2019 in tests. He is back to his favorite place Australia where he averages 54.08 and one of his best knocks 123(257) came on this ground. He admitted that was the toughest pitch he batted in Australia. If he gets a fifty or hundred in this test, he could again start dominating in Australia and can bring back his glory days one last time before he retires.

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Team News: Rohit won’t take part in the Perth test. Gill to miss this test due to a thumb injury. Devdutt Padikkal might get added to the squad last minute. KL Rahul is fit and set to open. Mcsweeney to make a debut.

As far as the Indian team is concerned, their batters have already started to feel the heat from their bowlers in match simulation. The result couple of premier batters like Gill and KL Rahul are in an injury scare. Dhruv Jurel might play as a pure batter after impressive knocks against AUS A. From the outset, it looks like the team management is not happy with Easweran’s Technique in these bouncy conditions. So, Devdutt Padikkal might get added to the squad in the last minute purely because of his Back-foot Play and is likely to play at No.3. Nitish Kumar Reddy or Harshit Rana will debut too. Due to his performance during the “A” series and his height aspect Prasidh might push Akash deep for a spot.

Expected XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Devdutt Padikkal, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant(WK), Dhurv Jurel, Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy/Harshit Rana, Jasprit Bumrah(C), Mohammed Siraj, Akash Deep/Prasidh Krishna.

For Australia, it’s very straightforward. Nathan McSweeney will partner with Khawaja and others pick themselves. Steve Smith will be back to his best position No.4.

Expected XI: Usman Khawaja, Nathan McSweeney, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey(WK), Pat Cummins(C), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood.

Notable Current Form Update: Mitchell Starc is back to his best in terms of rhythm and Alex Carey is in red-hot form with a 90.40 average in Sheffield Shield 2024/25. So, expecting these two to perform better.

Prediction Time:

• Australia is expected to win this test by a huge margin.

• Australia to win the series by 3-1

• Most Runs(Series): Virat Kohli

• Most Wickets(Series): Mitchell Starc

• Harshit Rana will turn out to be a breakout star after this series with both ball and bat.