Corridor of uncertainty: Death bowling conundrum - what number says?
A deep dive into team India’s death bowling and who is better equipped to replace irreplaceable Jasprit bumrah in T20WC squad?
First and foremost, we need to understand bowling at the death overs (17th over to 20th over) is not an easy job. Especially, in these Indian grounds where the grounds are very small in size. Impact is there to see, even when batters are beaten by the bowler they are able to get 6 runs for it. The evolution of T20 format is asking too much from the bowlers and becoming cruel to them.
Why not 16th over?
16th over is more an end of middle overs rather than death over. Usually in a t20 game compared to 16th over 17, 18, 19, 20th overs batters try to attack lot more and value their wicket comparably lesser. Hence the 20th over become toughest over to bowl in a t20 game. Take IPL 2022 as an example, on average still 16th over of the game Rpo is less than 9.2 but when you take the average Rpo starting from 17th it goes more than 9.6 Rpo to 11.52 Rpo.
1 to 6 Powerplay overs
7 to 16 Middle overs
17 to 20 Death overs
This is how a phase of T20 game should be split. So that “numbers don’t lie”
By Empathetic on bowlers who bowls at the death, let me tell you a stat which helps to understand it better. In T20Is this year, apart from Afghanistan(9Rpo) no other Top 10 team has an economy rate of less than 10 in last 4 overs of the game.
In 2022 T20Is, on average overs between 17 to 20 goes for 10.6Rpo. Out of 10 teams only 4 teams have better Rpo than 10.6.
With this in mind, now we can get into every pacer in Indian T20WC 14-member squad (as of now) and see how they have performed in this phase. As fans most of us are biased towards recent performance, so the below numbers are taken since 2021 T20s (IPL & T20Is).
Bhuvneshwar Kumar
The most experienced pacer in the squad but lately his bowling is getting hammered at death overs especially his 19th overs are not up to the mark. We will see how he faired in overall scheme of things since 2021
His strength is always wide Yorkers and knuckle ball both delivers are tough to execute considering he is bowling tough overs it’s an Excellent performance. Adding to that, he bowled the second most balls since 2021 among other Indian pace bowlers in this phase of the game. And his 54.4% of overs goes below 10Rpo.
Harshal Patel
The T20 specialist in this team with more varieties like slow ball Yorkers, slower ball bouncers and recently batters are lining him up for his slow deliveries he started bowling lot of quicker deliveries. Since 2021 he has bowled more deliveries at this phase of the game among Indian pacers
Especially when you take 19th and 20th overs of an innings, two toughest overs in an t20 innings. Harshal patel bowled more than 200 balls in 19 & 20 over of an innings. So, for him to have just 10.3 Econ in this phase of the game is Exceptional. By this we can understand he is the most exposed bowler at death and being put under pressure to deliver game after game. By the means of delivering 12 balls in last 24 balls of the game he did it more than once every 2 matches that he played since 2021.
Arshdeep Singh
The only left arm quick bowler in this team and the youngest. Mostly he sticks to Yorkers especially round the wicket to RH, he executes them like a veteran and his numbers say exceptional facts. He goes less than 10rpo 65% of time in this phase of the game.
By the look of it, Indian bowlers have the arsenal to deliver at the death if their executions are spot on and Indian fielders take catches come their way during T20WC. Because team India has the second worst catching efficiency for a team in T20Is post 2021 T20WC.
Before moving onto the contenders replacing irreplaceable bumrah, let me tell you average runs scored per over during death overs (17 to 20) in Australia (All T20s since 2021) and see where Indian bowlers stand.
Average Economy of death overs in Australia is 9.9 Rpo. Apart from Arshdeep, bhuvi and Harshal went more than average Rpo. Considering the size of the boundaries in Australia, the gap can be bridged if Indian fielders take their catches.
Next part of the article – Contenders to replace irreplaceable Jasprit bumrah in T20WC squad
First, we need to understand overs in which bumrah was being used since 2021, Bumrah played 38 T20s (IPL + T20Is) in this period where he bowled 45% of his balls in death overs (17 to 20th overs) means his 55% balls are bowled during 1 to 16 overs of the game. As T20 is mostly role driven game, we can compare the contenders by the role they played in their respective teams along with their performance:
Mohammed Shami
The most experienced player of the contenders has experience of playing in Australia but when you take his usage, he just bowled around 28% of his overs at death means predominantly he bowled at 1 to 16 overs. But has enough exposure to bowl in all phases compare to other pacers. Not only exposure his performance at death overs is better than his contenders
When you take IPL 2022, compare to all the other overs in an innings 17 to 20th overs are higher in average runs scored in an innings. A bowler on average goes for 10.6 during this phase but shami goes at 10 and has the equal amount of exposure bowling 17, 18, 19,20 overs.
Md Shami – High in Experience, High exposure & Good enough performance
Deepak chahar
Powerplay specialist who bowls almost 90% his overs between 1 to 16 overs. Since 2021, he played 26 t20s and bowled just 10.1 overs in death over phase when you compare the exposure with other contenders, he bowled around 1/4th of deliveries in this phase. Apparently, he has economy rate of 10.4 which is second worst among his contenders.
Significantly, he enjoyed bowling easy overs (16th over) compare to his contenders especially at death (how?). He bowled 2 balls less than Hardik Pandya at death and conceded 1.1 runs more per over. Adding to that, he didn’t bowl 2 overs out of last 4 overs in this phase of the innings single time during these 26 matches.
D chahar – Low in Experience, Low exposure & Average performance
Mohammed Siraj
The Bumrah factor is not only about his usage even the pace at which he bowls add onto it. When it comes to pace Mohammed Siraj is up there for a contention. During SA T20I series he hit around 147kph. The conditions in Australia also demand that most of the time. As far as the usage is concern, Siraj is more or less same as shami. Bowls around 22% overs at death.
Md Siraj – Average in Experience, Average exposure & Average performance
Avesh Khan
Avesh is the tallest bowler in the contention and played maximum number of games since 2021 compared to his counterparts. In Australia, bounce will also be a factor along with the length, around 6/7m and above are the ideal length which can extract some extra bounce for tall bowlers. Naturally he is hit the deck and tall bowler going around in Indian circuit.
When it comes to usage Avesh comes close to bumrah compared to other contenders around 35% overs bowled at the death but his execution in Indian colours during death overs or be it any phase, he didn’t live up to the expectations. He has the worst economy(10.9Rpo) at death compared to his counterparts also bowled more balls during this phase than others. High exposure low in performance.
A khan – Low in Experience, High exposure & Low performance
Bumrah – High in experience, High Exposure & High Performance. That’s why as I stated in the beginning of this article bumrah is irreplaceable better Indian management pick a player based on experience or conditions.
Good analysis bro !
Great work Aksay...